Population Health Modelling Research
Recent work has focused on the further development of methods for population health modelling. These methods have been used by network researchers for their projects (see Seven More Years: The Impact of Smoking, Alcohol, Diet, Physical Activity and Stress on Health and Life Expectancy in Ontario available at: www.ices.on.ca)
Modelling activities have included extending the Diabetes Population Risk Tool (DPoRT) model to include diabetes complications, and development of a model for cardiovascular disease.
Development of linked data and methods for population health research
Dr. Manuel has also focused on the development of infrastructure to support population health research, including:
- supporting new data linkages, of population health importance, at the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (ICES);
- developing new research infrastructure (e.g., the creation of a multiple chronic disease database, monitoring outcomes from population-wide interventions such as vaccines); and,
- developing a Population and Public Health Program at ICES (inaugural meeting May 2012).
How to prevent 10% of new diabetes cases in Ontario?
330,000 new cases of diabetes are predicted to develop from 2012-2017. DPoRT demonstrated that to prevent 10% of new diabetes cases, a high-risk individual strategy would require 750,000 Ontarians to be adherent to preventive medications; a population community-wide strategy would require an average 3% reduction Ontarian’s BMI. The model has been used by Public Health Ontario, the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care, and local Public Health Units to plan new diabetes strategies.
Over the next ten years, will cardiovascular disease in Ontario increase, decrease or level?
The cardiovascular disease model predicts that, in 2017, obesity will overtake smoking as the number one CVD risk. Further work, incorporating sodium, will enable evaluation of the impact of sodium consumption on CVD risk.
Content Tracking Tool: Canadian Community Health Survey
The CTT was developed as a spreadsheet document to provide information on selected CCCHS modules and their variables across cycles. This tool allows users of the CCHS to quickly identify variables that are consistent or inconsistent through cycles of the survey. (see Tools for Research)
Novel knowledge transfer/exchange tools for planners and general population
Ontario’s population can gain seven more years in life expectancy and have a better quality of life by living healthier lives.
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